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Friday, 11 October 2024 10:41

RAN market faces steep decline until advent of 6G: report Featured

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Following a 40 to 50% revenue growth between 2017 and 2021, the RAN market is now facing a second consecutive year of steep declines, according to a new 6G report by Dell’Oro Group. The pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, but downward pressure will likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality.

Total RAN revenues are projected to trend downward until 2029. However, 6G RAN revenues are poised to take the limelight as it approaches US$30 billion by 2033.

Sub-7 GHz and cmWave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix by 2033 as well.

“In addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30-plus years, the overpromising of 5G and its inability to significantly alter the flat revenue trend among operators are fueling increased skepticism regarding the need for substantial investments in new technologies,” it said in a statement.

Dell’Oro Group vice president of RAN and telecom capex research Stefan Pongratz said “skepticism” is warranted since operators invested over US$2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 to 2023 to build 4G and 5G yet revenues remain flat.

“Looking ahead, operators will need to optimize their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios. Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will in turn put further downward pressure on the RAN market.”

However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution,” Pongratz added.





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