2024 turned out to be horror year for telecommunications equipment providers throughout the world, with massively declining revenues, according to a prominent market analyst.
Following a 40 to 50% revenue growth between 2017 and 2021, the RAN market is now facing a second consecutive year of steep declines, according to a new 6G report by Dell’Oro Group. The pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, but downward pressure will likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality.
Worldwide telecom capex, the sum of wireless and wireline/other telecom carrier investments, declined 10% year-over-year (YoY) in the first half of 2024, partly due to built-up inventory, a weaker demand in China, India, and US, and the challenging 5G comparisons, excess capacity, and elevated uncertainty, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Preliminary findings indicate that worldwide telecom equipment revenues across the six telecom programs—broadband access, microwave and optical transport, mobile core network (MCN), radio access network (RAN), and SP router and switch—declined 16% year-over-year in 2Q24, recording a fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit contractions, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Sales of GPUs and accelerators reached US$54 billion in 2Q 2024, driven by high demand for custom accelerators in the hyperscale cloud market, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Private wireless Radio Access Network (RAN) revenue growth rose to 24% in 2Q 2024, slowing slightly on a year-over-year basis relative to the 40% increase in 2023, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
The Ethernet data centre switches rebounded in 2Q 2024 after a temporary decline in the first quarter, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Total revenue for broadband access equipment market decreased to US$4.2 billion in 2Q 2024 down 8% year-over-year (Y/Y), according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
The broader Open RAN movement has come a long way in just a few years, but the results have been mixed, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
The Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) market is projected to reach nearly US$16 billion by 2028, representing a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Security Service Edge (SSE) revenue is expected to maintain a robust double-digit CAGR and outpace SD-WAN’s single-digit CAGR over the next five years (2023–2028), according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Wireless LAN (WLAN) revenues are expected to drop 13% in 2024 with lower prices exacerbating depressed demand, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Radio Access Network (RAN) market conditions remain challenging for the broader mobile infrastructure and RAN markets. Following the 40 to 50% increase between 2017 and 2021, the RAN market is now declining, and these trends are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period (2024-2028), according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Optical DWDM equipment is forecast to reach US$18 billion in market revenue by 2028, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Market research firm Dell’Oro Group has lowered its forecast for the telecom server market relative to its October 2022 report citing factors including economic headwinds leading to reduced spending on mobile network infrastructure and challenges with the adoption of Open RAN and MEC.
Coherent optical transceiver shipments are forecast to grow at a 17% CAGR in the next five years, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Server vendors and cloud service providers are reducing excess inventories as server demand weakens. Despite the circumstance, the Smart NIC market is poised for double-digit growth in 2023 with broader adoption in the cloud and enterprise markets, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
Data centre switches grew more than 20% in 1Q 2023 representing the fourth consecutive quarter of record-breaking revenue levels with network equipment company Arista and multinational technology company Nvidia leading the pack and outpacing market performance.
Data centre capex is expected to reach US$400 billion ($576 billion) by 2027 as hybrid cloud will generate growth opportunities for both the hyperscale and enterprise markets, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
The optical transport equipment is set to increase at a 3% CAGR for the next five years, reaching US$17 billion ($24 billion) by 2027. During the five-year period, cumulative revenue is expected to hit at US$81 billion ($115 billion), according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
After four years of growth that propelled the radio access network market to reach new record levels, the RAN market is transitioning from expansion to the next phase in 5G journey with more challenging comparisons and slower growth, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.
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