However, the pace of the decline should moderate somewhat after 2024.

“It is not a surprise that there is rain after sunshine,” says Dell’Oro Group vice president for RAN market research Stefan Pongratz, comparing the weather to RAN conditions.

“In addition to MBB-based coverage-related challenges, this disconnect between mobile data traffic growth and the capacity boost provided by the mid-band, taken together with continued monetisation uncertainty, is clearly weighing on the market,” adds Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year July 2024 Forecast Report:

Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to decline at a 2% CAGR over the next five years, as continued 5G investments will be offset by rapidly declining LTE revenues.

The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the decline, while easier comparisons following steep contractions in 2023 will improve the growth prospects in the North American region. Even with some recovery, North American RAN revenues are expected to remain significantly lower relative to the peak in 2022.

5G-Advanced positions remain unchanged. The technology will play an essential role in the broader 5G journey. However, 5G-Advanced is not expected to fuel another major capex cycle. Instead, operators will gradually transition their spending from 5G towards 5G-Advanced within their confined capex budgets.

RAN segments that are expected to grow over the next five years include 5G NR, FWA, mmWave, Open RAN, vRAN, private wireless, and small cells.