Unfortunately for those hoping for a change of pace, the outlook for the year ahead appears to be more of the same. Increasingly dispersed workforces and increased use of cloud resources have widened the attack surface and made the challenge of securing IT resources even more complex.

At the same time, many security teams are also grappling with restricted budgets. As economic clouds gather, they are being forced to find ways to achieve more with less.

Interestingly, these budget forces are also having an impact on the attackers themselves. Many are finding formerly lucrative activities such as ransomware are no longer paying off as targets refuse to make demanded payments.

The rise of machine identity management attacks

As a result, increasing numbers are looking for new ways to exploit vulnerabilities and inflict more damage. They are eyeing alternative avenues for attacks against things such as critical infrastructure and machine identity management.

During the coming year, there are five key trends that will shape the evolving machine identity management security landscape. The trends are:

1. Revenue from the sale of machine identities will replace revenue from ransomware attacks: As fewer organisations opt to pay ransomware demands, cyber attackers will be forced to change their tactics. The shift will put a premium on other sources of income such as the lucrative sale of stolen machine identities such as code-signing certificates.

During 2022, there was already evidence of evolving dark web markets for identities with groups such as Lapsus$ that regularly use them to launch damaging attacks. The value of machine identities will continue to increase during 2023, making their theft even more attractive.

2. A desire to cut costs will result in more businesses putting all their eggs in one cloud basket: In another effort to reduce operational costs, increasing numbers of businesses will opt to shift away from using multiple cloud platforms and consolidate their IT resources in a single location. While this may indeed reduce operational costs, it also concentrates risk and presents new opportunities for attackers. It may also waste the agility and speed that a multiple cloud strategy can deliver.

3. Critical infrastructure will remain in the cybercriminal's cross hairs: With energy supply now a global issue, businesses and governments around the world will remain focused on ensuring reliable supply throughout the coming 12 months. A key part of this is maintaining protective measures against cyberattacks.

Cybercriminals are well aware of this and the incentive to target critical infrastructure will rise. There have previously been examples of attacks against infrastructure, such as the Stuxnet worm that targeted an Iranian uranium enrichment plant back in 2010. During 2023, energy companies must secure their machine identities in preparation for more such attacks.

4. Attacks against nation state attacks will become more frenetic as cyber and physical worlds merge: In the past, real-world and cyberwarfare have tended to be seen as two different things. During 2023, they will merge. An example can be seen in the Russian invasion of Ukraine where the on-the-ground offensive has not gone the way Moscow had planned.

As a result, Russia is likely to ramp up its cyberattacks against energy and water infrastructure in an effort to inflict more disruption and damage. This will continue throughout the coming year as the war rages on.

5. The role of security teams will become even more critical: As the cyberthreat landscape continues to evolve during the year, pressure on IT security teams will become even more intense. The teams will play a vital role in ensuring everything from critical infrastructure to business applications remain secure and fully operational at all times. Effective machine identity management will be a critical part of this.

There is no question that the coming year will be full of opportunity for expansion and growth; however, the looming threats posed by cyberattacks are also tipped to grow. Security teams need to understand this changing landscape and ensure they have the measures and processes in place to protect both machine identities and their wider IT infrastructures.