US survey:the internet to change news publishing industry

Last September, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, a US research organisation in Washington, sent out a survey asking 24 questions about the future of the internet to a wide range of technology specialists, scholars and industry leaders. Some 1,200 responded and the survey results solidly confirmed what media watchers may already know (and perhaps fear): that the internet and the rise of the blogger are expected to drive greater change in the news media and publishing industries than in any other sector of society, reports The New York Times (10 Jan).

The paper says the survey found that internet specialists also expected broad changes in education and working life, and 50 percent of respondents said they believed - despite all of the lawsuits filed by the recording and movie industries against online pirates - that the vast majority of internet users would still be freely trading digital materials via anonymous networks by 2014.

According to the NYT,some of the more cherished notions of the internet age - that it isolates people from real-world interaction, for instance, or that people use the web to find reinforcement for their political views and filter out opposing ones - generated deeply divided views among the specialists. Some 42 percent of respondents agreed with the assertion that civic involvement would increase in the next 10 years as people sought and found organisations to join online; nearly 30 percent disagreed. Roughly 40 percent viewed the proliferation of online medical resources as a potential boon to health care management and access; 30 percent of the specialists thought that unlikely.

The paper says that one assertion on which there was widespread agreement was that the infrastructure of the internet would be the target of "at least one devastating attack" in the next 10 years. Sixty-six percent of respondents agreed.

The predictions made in the surveyare being added to a growing online database called Imagining the Internet, developed jointly by the Pew Project and Elon University in the US state of North Carolina. The database, at www.elon.edu/predictions, includes more than 4,000 predictive statements made by hundreds of technology specialists during the dawn of the internet era between 1990-95.

On the way: mobile phones as credit cards

People already use their mobile phones to read e-mail messages, take pictures and play video games and, before long, they may use them in place of their wallets, according to a report in The New York Times of 10 January.

The paper says by embedding in the mobile phone a computer chip or other type of memory device, a phone can double as a credit card. The chip performs the same function as the magnetic strip on the back of a credit card, storing account information and other data necessary to make a purchase.

The report says that in Asia, phone makers are already selling phones that users can swipe against credit or debit card readers, in much the same way they would swipe plastic MasterCard or Visa cards. Trials are now under way to bring the technology to the US according to industry executives.

The Infrared Data Association, a US trade group representing companies pushing the technology for mobile phone credit cards, said that the new handsets could become a major form of payment,"because cellphones are the most ubiquitous device in the world".

Advocates say that consumers will readily embrace the technology as a way to pay for even small purchases, because it is less bother than taking a credit card out of a purse or parting with cash.

The NYT says the impending changes to the mobile phone happen to coincide with major shifts taking place in the banking industry. The paper says that since credit cards are still considered somewhat inconvenient, particularly for quick, small purchases, major credit card companies have developed "contactless payment" technologies for checkout counters that allow customers to wave their cards near an electronic reader without having to swipe the card or sign their name.

The paper says that mobile phone makers are hoping these new payment systems will also make it easier to market handsets with credit card functions, although they could just as easily represent competition for the practice of paying by cellphone.

The marriage of mobile phone and charge card poses some significant challenges, including security problems. To reduce fraud from stolen phones, consumers may be required to punch an authorisation code into their phone each time a charge is made.

For more than a year, phone makers, software companies and computer chip manufacturers have been working to develop secure and reliable payment technology for mobile phones. After the phone's chip is recognised by the electronic reader, the credit card account number will be verified, as it is now, and the price of the purchase will be added to the consumer's credit card bill.

The new phones may also be capable of being programmed for a prepaid sum from which payments could be deducted.

The NYT says that mobile phones are becoming mainstream payment devices in Korea and Japan, where NTT DoCoMo, the mobile phone operator, said that it had already sold more than a million phones equipped with chips that include the payment function.

US Online Retailers Look Internationally for Growth

The New York Times reports (10 Jan) that US online businesses are looking to foreign markets as sales growth in the American domestic market for their services and products slows.

Analysts and internet executives who have experience with foreign retail operations, though, warn that such forays remain harder than they may appear, although researchers say every major US online retailer is now looking at internationalisation as an engine of growth.

The paper cited one company,ProFlowers, an online florist, which operates web sites in foreign languages and passes along orders to merchants in those countries, that will begin its expansion effort this year with test marketing in Canada.

Looking at international markets, the NYT reports that over the next five years the European electronic commerce market was expected to grow at an annual rate of 33 percent - more than twice the rate in the United States. The percentage of Europeans who are online continues to grow, whereas the United States, by contrast, is adding relatively few new internet users each year because most Americans are already online, accordiong to internet analysts.

The NYT says the success of Amazon.com's international sales efforts has also helped spur the trend of online retailers expanding globally. During its latest earnings announcement in late October, Amazon.com said that its North American sales had grown 15 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2003. Meanwhile, sales for the company's British, German, French, Japanese and Chinese sites were up 52 percent in the quarter compared to the same period a year earlier.

The paper reports that among American merchants, few have as extensive an international internet operation as Office Depot, the office supply company that generated $US3 billion in online sales last year, more than 20 percent of the company's overall sales. In addition to its United States web site, the company operates sites in 16 other countries and in 14 languages.

Digital audio reaching critical mass

The New York Times, in a report (10 Jan) on a study by the Consumer Electronics Association, says that according to market researchers,digital audio is at an industrywide tipping point in the US, with about 9.5 million households planning to purchase an MP3 player within the year, a 33 percent jump from the previous year

The paper says that according to the 2004 study by the Consumer Electronics Association, some 81 percent of those buyers will be purchasing their first MP3 player.

Overall, Forrester Research predicts that the percentage of U.S. households with MP3 players will jump from about 6 percent in 2004 to as much as 25 percent by the end of 2006, and that behind-the-scenes advances are expected to help propel the digital audio market.

On the battery front -- always a sore point for consumers according to the NYT-- Matsushita Electric Industrial and Panasonic will soon introduce a new Oxyride battery that promises to provide twice the juice of regular batteries.

Storage components of portable devices, including cell phones, are also steadily increasing in capacity and dropping in cost.

The NYT reports that just this week, for instance, Hitachi Global Storage Technologies, the supplier of the 1-inch hard-drive for iPod Minis, introduced new technology that doubles the capacity to up to 10 gigabytes, and Sony announced a new 4-gigabyte Memory Stick -- twice the previous maximum capacity.

And, the NYT reports that by the end of 2008, the average selling price of a hard-drive-based portable audio player is expected to drop below $200, according to predictions by IDC analysts.