The user community is justifiably moaning and bitching about the intrusive anti-piracy measures of the WGA and SPP programs which amount to Microsoft putting spyware on their computers. But those users will still buy Vista.

Security vendors and other former software partners will continue to cry foul and complain to regulators when Microsoft leverages its desktop monopoly to put them out of business. But as far as users are concerned, their cries will fall on deaf ears.

Users will scream blue murder about being forced to upgrade their hardware or buy new computers just so they can run Vista. But they will bite the bullet and dip into their pockets.

Windows Vista will sell, just like XP, 2000, 98 and 95 did before it, for one simple reason. There is nothing else.

Going the Apple Mac OS X route will work for many users but not for the majority. Most computer users don't want to be tied to one vendor for both their hardware and software. The Mac system is even more closed than Windows.

Personally, I'm at the stage where I don't care about being limited to the range of devices and software on Apple's list. All I care about is that everything works with a minimum of fuss and is reasonably priced. For me right now, Mac fits the bill so I won't upgrade to Vista.

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However, the vast majority of Windows users have too much software and data tied up with Windows to consider switching to Macs. For most businesses, it simply will not be an option.

That leaves the big disappointment that is Linux. Unfortunately, the open source Linux community failed to pick up the ball that Microsoft dropped when it didn't deliver Vista two years ago. Despite the valiant efforts of Novell, Red Hat, the Ubuntu community and others, 2006 is not the year of the Linux desktop.

Most ordinary computer users still would not know where to start if they wanted to make the transition from Windows to Linux. Sure, most of the more well known distributions are easy enough to install. But what happens when you can't find a driver for one of your hardware devices or you have trouble setting up your wireless network? Even downloading drivers off the web still requires going to the command line with many Linux distributions.

Novell has made a valiant attempt at convincing us that Suse Linux would be the answer to our prayers. So far, however, what we've seen is a fancy 3D interface but underneath it all the same usability problems that make it a great operating system for the tech savvy home user or an enterprise with a team of tech savvy IT maintenance staff but not for an ordinary user.

The same thing goes for Ubuntu Linux. It's easy enough to install but if you want to do something like download a driver for your printer or sound card - if you can find one - a novice user has to go trawling through online forums to find out how to do it.

That's fine if you like spending time doing that sort of thing but most computer users are time poor. They just want a system that works out of the box.

In the case of businesses and large enterprises, Linux for the desktop will probably continue to make an impact, particularly as web services start to usurp the role of desktop applications. However, the process will be gradual because of all the intellectual capital businesses have tied up in Microsoft applications.

In the case of consumers, some will buy Macs, some will buy Macs and install Vista on them, some will upgrade to Vista on their existing hardware, and the majority will eventually just buy a new computer with Vista pre-installed.

Many of us may think that it's sad that Windows still doesn't have a viable and realistic competitor, but right now it's a fact of life and that's why Vista will sell.