According to International Data Corporation’s (IDC) latest report, detachable tablets (a.k.a. Surface) are set to grow from 8% of the market to 30% by 2020.

Before you read on, iTWire advises that statistics and projections about market share are muddied considerably by definitions. For example, some statistics include x86 Surface-like hybrids (where the tablet can have an optional keyboard) in personal computer sales — as they should be — and some like IDC include them in tablets with Android and iOS (iPad).

Moving forward it would make sense for x86 — ‘Wintel’ [although we must not forget AMD here too] — to be a single category broken into notebooks, desktops, and hybrids, with ARM-based tablets in another.

IDC’s statistics are little confusing – according to the table below Windows (x86 and predominantly Surface at this time, with a smattering of HP X2, Lenovo and Dell) currently has 53.3% of the detachable tablet market share.

But the statistic on ‘Detachable’ indicates that there is 73% year-on-year growth and that this will continue to grow by 15% in the next four years.

Worldwide Detachable Tablet Market Share and Year-Over-Year Growth by OS, 2016* & 2020*
OS	2016*	2020*
Android	18.2%	23.1%
iOS	28.5%	22.4%
Windows	53.3%	54.5%
Detachable YoY Growth	73.0%	15.0%
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, March 8, 2016.

Read on for IDC comments and the author's own comments.

"Beyond the growing demand for detachable devices, we're also witnessing an increase in competition within this segment that will help drive design, innovation, and a decline in average prices," said IDC’s Jean Philippe Bouchard, Research Director, Tablets. "At the latest Mobile World Congress, we saw new entrants, like Alcatel and Huawei, coming from the mobile space and expanding their portfolio to address the demand for detachables [x86 Windows]. Everyone in the industry recognizes that traditional personal computers like desktops and notebooks will potentially be replaced by detachables in the coming years, and this is why we will see a lot of new products being introduced this year."

The change from slate form factor to detachables will bring along two other changes to the tablet industry. First, devices with larger screen sizes (9" and above) will experience growth throughout the forecast while those under nine inches will decline. And second, Microsoft-based devices will begin taking share from the other platforms, most notably Android.

"This momentous shift in form factor will bring along the first significant impact of Windows-based devices that the tablet market has seen," said Ryan Reith, program pirector with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "Windows 10 seems to be making headway in both the PC and tablet markets, mainly driven by devices with larger screen sizes. Despite the free licensing on products under 9”, the growth for Windows-based tablets will be primarily on devices with displays between 9 and 13 inches. Until we see a day where touch is introduced for Mac OS X and inroads are paved to bring Android and Chrome more closely aligned, we believe Windows remains the logical choice for detachable products."

Comment

Hybrids are the next big thing. They are the place where innovation in size, detachability, dock-ability, features, and choice of materials will be encouraged by a plethora of OEMs making Windows 10-based devices. Good old-fashioned competition will drive innovation up and price down.

The Wintel hybrid category was slow to evolve starting with the Surface Pro in early 2013. In essence, this category is a larger screen, thin and light, with a reasonable battery life – and a detachable keyboard.

The Pro 3 got it almost right – so much so that the new Pro 4 is simply a refinement of its predecessor with a better detachable keyboard and a slightly bigger, brighter screen. I expect the Pro 5 to be similar in size and format again, using later technology so it will be faster, have more storage, and maybe move to USB-C for charging and data (that depends on Intel producing a low voltage i7 processor).

Pretty soon every major OEM — Acer, Dell, Lenovo, HP, Toshiba and new Wintel entrants like Alcatel, Samsung and Huawei — will offer their takes on hybrids.

We will see some win market share on innovation (particularly with docks and gaming GPUs), we will see some go for the lightest (using newer materials like carbon fibre), and there will be those that just make a good, low-cost, honest device for the masses. Choice is good.

I learnt that success comes from the ‘est’ strategy. The more ‘ests’ you occupy, the more you win sales.

You can be the first’est’ like Microsoft and its Surface;

You can be the best’est’ – the one device that beats all on quality and materials;

You can be the sexi’est’ – the must-have, different looking (a bit like Samsung have done with the Edge);

You can be the cheap’est’ – people will always buy what they can afford;

You can be the novel’est’ – a range of features that may be useful – or not.

My take is that the Surface as the first’est’ will continue to set be the reference point for hybrids, but we will see a lot more from other players in this category soon.

So where does that leave iPad and Android? ARM-based tablets (also called slates) are more content consumption devices – and they are great for that. The majority of sales are in the 8-10” space, and as IDC figures show are on the decline as others realise that x86 hybrids can do everything that a desktop can.

The key here is the operating system. iOS and Android — no matter how good they are as smartphone operating systems — simply don’t support all the x86 programs and apps that we have come to rely on for productivity, nor do they support almost every USB device made or every IP network used in the home or business.

Oh, and I would not write off Continuum style, smartphone computing yet – it may be a part of the hybrid ecosystem whether it is on an ARM-based smartphone or a new x86 powered device.