Monday, 23 January 2023 11:23

RAN market growth to slow down in the next five years, forecasts Dell’Oro Group

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After four years of growth that propelled the radio access network market to reach new record levels, the RAN market is transitioning from expansion to the next phase in 5G journey with more challenging comparisons and slower growth, according to market research firm Dell’Oro Group.

"It is still early days in the 5G journey but at the same time, the coverage and capacity phases that have shaped the capex cycles with previous technology generations still hold," explained Dell’Oro Group vice president and analyst Stefan Pongratz.

“Still, even with the expected changes in capital intensities as the operators reach their initial 5G coverage targets, the plethora of 5G frequencies taken together with the upside from FWA and eventually private 5G, will curb the peak-to-trough decline relative to 2G-4G," continued Pongratz.

The Mobile RAN five-year January 2023 forecast highlighted the following:

1. Global RAN is projected to grow at a zero percent CAGR outside of China by 2027.
2. The less advanced MBB regions are expected to grow while RAN investments in both China and 3. North America are expected to decline at mid-single digit CAGRs over the forecast period.
5G RAN is expected to grow another 25% to 30% by 2027, though this will barely be enough to offset steep declines in LTE.
4. mmWave projections have been revised downward over the near term and upward in the outer part of the forecast to reflect the potential upside with higher EIRP solutions.
5. Small cell RAN revenue growth has been outpacing macros for some time now and these trends are expected to extend throughout the forecast period, with small cell RAN revenues growing more than 20% by 2027.

This first appeared in the subscription newsletter CommsWire on 20 January 2023.


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