The company said that even in a worst-case scenario, where IT budgets came under pressure, the market would still grow 2.5%. This was forecast taking into account the maximum negative economic impact and duration of the coronavirus pandemic.
Canalys chief analyst Matthew Ball said: "The shift to subscriptions will shield cyber security from immediate IT spending cuts, but additional expenditure will be affected for the rest of the year as organisations begin the next stage in their response to the pandemic.
“The switch from free trials to paid-for subscriptions will be a factor in maintaining cyber security growth. But the mix of cost containment measures, workforce reduction and cashflow issues will result in greater scrutiny of existing projects and smaller deals.
Canalys said the cyber security growth would vary from one technology segment to another. "Endpoint security will see high growth rates, as remote working practices are extended, though momentum will slow after strong investment in Q1, especially in SMB customer segments," the firm said.
"Network security will remain the largest segment, at 36% of spending. But the reprioritisation of budgets will remove the emphasis spending on traditional appliance-based perimeter defences. This will lead to negative growth rates
"Organisations will have to boost spending in other areas of their security stack to address new vulnerabilities created by a more decentralised workforce through multi-layer prevention plus detection and response.
"This will incorporate Web and email security, data security, and vulnerability and security analytics. Spending will also shift to cloud deployment options and securing cloud-deployed workloads, as organisations optimise business continuity measures and accelerate cloud migration."
Canalys research analyst Ketaki Borade said largescale remote working would be in place for a lot longer than previously envisioned when the lockdown first took effect in March.
“While some employees will return to the workplace over the coming months, organisations will have to maintain a highly decentralised workforce that can work anywhere for the foreseeable future.
"This includes a combination of remote-only and flexible workers, as well as on-site-only workers who can quickly transition to remote-only working if a localised or national lockdown comes about again.”
The latest Canalys research for Western Europe, for example, forecasts that working from home regularly will grow from 12% pre-COVID-19 to 28% in the post-COVID-19 era.