Gartner says 90% of blockchain platforms will need to be replaced, with the blockchain platform market today composed of “fragmented offerings that often overlap or are being used in a complementary fashion, making technology choices confusing for IT decision makers”.
“Compounding this challenge is the fact that blockchain platform vendors typically use messaging that does not link to a target buyer’s use cases and business benefits,” said Adrian Lee, senior research director at Gartner.
“'Transactions,’ for example, was the term mentioned the most in relation to blockchain, followed by ‘secure’ and ‘security.’ While these may be functions of blockchain-enabling technology, buyers are still confused as to how these functions are achieved or what benefits blockchain adds compared to their existing processes.
“Due to the lack of an industry consensus on product concept, feature set, core application requirements and target market, we do not expect there to be a single dominant blockchain platform within the next five years. Instead, we expect a multiplatform world to emerge,” Lee added.
Lee said blockchain platforms are emerging platforms and, at this point, “nearly indistinguishable in some cases from core blockchain technology”.
“Many CIOs overestimate the capabilities and short-term benefits of blockchain as a technology to help them achieve their business goals, thus creating unrealistic expectations when assessing offerings from blockchain platform vendors and service providers.”
Gartner forecasts that by 2025, the business value added by blockchain will grow to slightly more than US$176 billion, then surge to exceed US$3.1 trillion by 2030.
“Product managers should prepare for rapid evolution, early obsolescence, a shifting competitive landscape, future consolidation of offerings and the potential failure of early stage technologies/functionality in the blockchain platform market,” Lee added.