Juniper Research examined two possible scenarios — a medium and high impact — and says it believes a low impact is now not possible, with the high impact scenario assuming that a severe disruption to international travel will continue for 9 months, with travel restrictions and a reduced demand for international travel continuing.
“In this case, the resulting impact on operators’ international roaming revenue would be significant,” says Juniper Research
The research assumes that over half of all roaming revenue for the year will be affected, amounting to US$25 billion in lost revenue, and also highlighted the period between June and August as of particular significance when the demand for international travel is high.
And in terms of the overall impact on operators, the research firm notes, however, that global roaming revenue only accounts for approximately 6% of total operator-billed revenue per year, limiting the hit on the industry.
“Given the nature of the international travel industry, the research anticipated that there will be no strategies available to operators to mitigate this loss. It forecast that services, such as virtual conferencing, will offer businesses an alternative to international travel, but will offer no benefit to operators,” says Juniper Research.
Additionally, the research highlighted that travel cancelled due to the spread of Coronavirus is unlikely to be rebooked, and as a result, the loss of roaming revenue is unlikely to be recovered once the international travel industry resumes normal service.